Comments on: A Stimulus Bill by Any Other Name….

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health insurance — Wed, 24 Feb 2010 17:49:03 +0000

Here is a very simple way of understanding the Stimulus: Assume that GDP grows at a rate of 2.5% per year from a starting level of $14300 billions for the next 5 years BECAUSE of Govt stimulus which increases the aggregate demand for goods and services in the economy. The Stimulus was REQUIRED because the aggregate demand was falling off very precipitously. This would start a very dangerous downward spiral forcing the economy to shed lot more jobs than it did so far w/o the timely Stimulus. Then at the end of 5 years, the GDP is at least about 1.125 X of the $14300 = $16087. The difference is $1787 billions. Deduct $600 billions out of this. The NET increase is $1187 billions. This is the NET benefit because of the Stimulus ( I am ignoring the compounding effect). The economy could grow stronger than I assumed. But 2.5% a year real GDP growth is very reasonable assumption (inflation is assumed to be internally corrected). Again, it depends on the assumptions you make regarding the future event of GDP growth. People practicing the Dismal Science need to struggle to explain simple math.